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“Monte Carlo” is the name given to simulations which make use of computer generated random numbers to identify the range of possible outputs a model may generate in the ‘real world’. Each random number generates an input from a user defined probability distribution which is run through the user’s model to produce a simulated outcome on each iteration of the model. Run thousands of iterations and you generate a probability distribution for the output of your model.
It was a disappointing end to the season as we won just 3 of the 10 match bets on the final day. That gave us a loss for May but fortunately the rest of the season was much better.
There were 380 Premier league matches in 2010/1 and we had winning bets on 54.2% of them. The yield was 6.2% with a return of 182.8%. There were 6 months with a positive return and 4 negative months. The average monthly return was 13.0% with a maximum of 46.2% in March and a minimum of -17.5% in May.
Wolves and Blackburn meet, both on 40 points and just above the dropzone. However, they’re not safe playing for a draw as should the remaining teams win, both would fall. Should the lower teams be losing at half time however you could see them playing out a draw, frustrating but very likely.
Wigan, Blackpool and Birmingham, the other 3 teams facing relegation, all play away. An early goal could set the cat amongst the pigeons and previous season’s finishes have shown we should expect the unexpected.
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